More Wins At Home, Greater Accuracy Away

By Michael Mandelkern

One anomaly about the Mets’ first half is that, despite having a better record at home (26/46) than away (20/40), most of its starting lineup has a higher batting average on the road than at Citi Field. Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Scott Hairston and David Wright all see the ball better outside of Queens. They collectively average 0.071 higher away than at home.

Davis is the most glaring example of this discrepancy. He averages a respectable .269 away, but even some pitchers would be upset to have his .134 average at Citi Field. His 12 home runs and 49 runs batted in underscore how valuable he can be when he connects. Davis causes far more of this damage on the road than he does at home. As a result, his overall batting average is a lackluster .201.

Wright’s average is high across the country, but he swings the bat at a monstrous .392 on the road with a still enviable .312 at Citi Field. Despite Wright and Davis’ drastic differences, the Mets have a higher winning percentage (56 percent) at home than away (50 percent).

Even though Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and Josh Thole can boast better averages at home than on the road, their total offensive output is considerably outweighed by the performances of Wright, Davis, Hairston, Tejada and Nieuwenhuis. If they  each made even moderate improvements under the Flushing spotlight, that 56 percent victory rate at home could easily reach 60, which might be the nudge the team needs to play on into October.

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One thought on “More Wins At Home, Greater Accuracy Away

  1. I like the way you analyze using mathematical formula…such a minute accuracy. I enjoy the clarity of seeing through the records. However, this line, “They collectively average 0.071 higher away than at home,” makes me laugh. Is this a statistically significant number to make any difference?

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